\documentclass[11pt]{amsart} \pdfoutput=1 \usepackage[usenames,dvipsnames]{xcolor} % \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage[letterpaper,margin=1in]{geometry} \usepackage{lmodern} \usepackage{microtype} \usepackage{etoolbox} % \usepackage{lettrine} \usepackage{mathtools} \usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsfonts,amsxtra,bm} \usepackage{amsthm} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{latexsym} \usepackage{nicefrac} % \usepackage{booktabs} \usepackage{makecell,multirow} % \usepackage{colortbl} \usepackage{graphicx} \usepackage{epstopdf} \usepackage{float} \floatstyle{plaintop} \restylefloat{table} \usepackage{footnote, tablefootnote} \usepackage{enumitem} \usepackage{algorithm} \usepackage{algorithmic} \usepackage{comment} \usepackage{xspace} \usepackage{url} \usepackage[most]{tcolorbox} \usepackage[round]{natbib} \usepackage{hyperref} \numberwithin{equation}{section} \makeatletter \definecolor{darkblue}{rgb}{0.0,0.0,0.65} \definecolor{darkred}{rgb}{0.68,0.05,0.0} \definecolor{darkgreen}{rgb}{0.0,0.29,0.29} \definecolor{darkpurple}{rgb}{0.47,0.09,0.29} \renewcommand{\topfraction}{0.85} \renewcommand{\bottomfraction}{0.4} \renewcommand{\textfraction}{0.1} \renewcommand{\floatpagefraction}{0.9} \patchcmd{\section}{\scshape}{\fontfamily{ppl}\bfseries\scshape\selectfont}{}{% \PackageWarning{aiproofs}{Could not bold the section font; amsart may have changed}} \newcommand{\aiauthor}{% \author[Suvrit Sra]{Suvrit Sra\textsuperscript{\normalfont*}}% \thanks{*\,TU Munich, Dept.~of Mathematics, School of CIT; Garching, Germany. 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\newcommand{\Hom}{\operatorname{Hom}} \newcommand{\End}{\operatorname{End}} \newcommand{\maj}{\operatorname{maj}} \newcommand{\SYT}{\operatorname{SYT}} \newcommand{\gr}{\operatorname{gr}} \newcommand{\sgn}{\operatorname{sgn}} \newcommand{\Span}{\operatorname{span}} \newcommand{\Dcal}{\mathcal D} \newcommand{\Kcal}{\mathcal K} \newcommand{\pos}{\succeq_s0} \newcommand{\cl}{c_{\lambda,k}} \theoremstyle{plain} \newtheorem{proposition}[theorem]{Proposition} \newtheorem{corollary}[theorem]{Corollary} \newtheorem{conjecture}[theorem]{Conjecture} \theoremstyle{definition} \newtheorem{definition}[theorem]{Definition} \newtheorem{problem}[theorem]{Problem} \theoremstyle{remark} \newtheorem{remark}[theorem]{Remark} \subjclass[2020]{Primary 05E05, 20C30; Secondary 14C05, 15A15} \keywords{$q$-Foulkes conjecture, Schur positivity, Foulkes--Howe map, coinvariant algebra, current operator, Gaussian Newton expansion} \providecommand{\PFprob}{\mathbb P} \providecommand{\PFexp}{\mathbb E} \providecommand{\PFvar}{\operatorname{Var}} \providecommand{\PFPl}{\operatorname{Pl}} \providecommand{\PFch}{\operatorname{Frob}} \providecommand{\PFInd}{\operatorname{Ind}} \providecommand{\PFcodim}{\operatorname{codim}} \providecommand{\PFrank}{\operatorname{rank}} \providecommand{\PFsupp}{\operatorname{supp}} \providecommand{\PFreg}{\mathbb C} \providecommand{\PFH}{\widetilde H} \providecommand{\PFone}{\mathbf 1} \providecommand{\PFN}{\mathbb N} \providecommand{\PFZ}{\mathbb Z} \providecommand{\PFR}{\mathbb R} \providecommand{\PFQ}{\mathsf G} \providecommand{\SPSym}{\operatorname{Sym}} \providecommand{\SPGL}{\operatorname{GL}} \providecommand{\SPFrob}{\operatorname{Frob}} \providecommand{\SPsgn}{\operatorname{sgn}} \providecommand{\SPK}{\mathcal K} \providecommand{\SPZ}{\mathcal Z} \providecommand{\SPff}{\mathfrak f} \providecommand{\SPfall}[2]{#1^{\underline{#2}}} \providecommand{\GKch}{\operatorname{Frob}} \providecommand{\GKTr}{\operatorname{Tr}} \providecommand{\GKInd}{\operatorname{Ind}} \providecommand{\GKrank}{\operatorname{rank}} \providecommand{\GKsgn}{\operatorname{sgn}} \providecommand{\GKStd}{\operatorname{Std}} \providecommand{\GKf}{\mathfrak f} \providecommand{\GKK}{\mathcal K} \providecommand{\GKZ}{\mathcal Z} \providecommand{\GKsl}{\mathfrak{sl}} \providecommand{\GKgap}{\operatorname{gap}^{+}} \begin{document} \title[The $q$-Foulkes problem III]{The $q$-Foulkes problem III:\\On Foulkes' conjecture with a graded inner factor} \aiauthor \begin{abstract} We show that surjectivity of the canonical map $\Sym^b(\Sym^aV)\to\Sym^a(\Sym^bV)$ survives grading of the inner factor. Consequently $h_b[H_a]-H_a[h_b]$ is Schur positive whenever the canonical map is surjective, where $H_a$ is the (modified) Hall--Littlewood polynomial; the same holds for (modified) Macdonald polynomials. We prove this surjectivity for $b\ge(a-1)^2$, improving the known bound $a(a-1)$. For Bergeron's $q$-analog of Foulkes' conjecture that lets both factors be graded, we prove nonnegativity of every Schur coefficient for certain special cases. % We also study the full conjecture under an expansion hypothesis on an explicit space of maps. \end{abstract} \preprintslink{qfoulkes3}{29 October 2026} \maketitle \addtocontents{toc}{\protect\setcounter{tocdepth}{-1}} \raggedbottom \vspace*{-6pt} \section{Introduction} We study the $q$-analog of Foulkes' conjecture proposed by \citet{bergeron2017foulkes}. Recall that \citeauthor{foulkes1950}'s conjecture~(\citeyear{foulkes1950}) states that the difference of plethysms $h_b[h_a]-h_a[h_b]$ is Schur positive for $a\le b$, i.e., it expands with nonnegative integer coefficients in the Schur functions $s_\lambda$, $\lambda\vdash ab$; here $h_n$ is the complete homogeneous symmetric function. This positivity is known for $a\le6$ \citep{thrall1942symmetrized,dent2000foulkes,mckay2008plethysm,cheung2017foulkes,OpenAI} and for $b$ large with respect to $a$ \citep{brion1993stable}, but it remains open in general. Bergeron's $q$-analog replaces $h_n$ by the (modified) Hall--Littlewood polynomial \begin{equation*} H_n(X;q) :=(q;q)_n h_n\left[\tfrac{X}{1-q}\right], \quad\text{where}\quad (q;q)_n :=\nlprod_{j=1}^n(1-q^j), \end{equation*} and his analog of Foulkes' conjecture is the following: \begin{dashedbox}[supporting] \begin{conjecture}[\citealp{bergeron2017foulkes}]\label{conj:bergeron} For all integers $a\le b$, the divided difference \begin{equation*} F_{a,b} :=\frac{H_b[H_a]-H_a[H_b]}{1-q} \end{equation*} is Schur positive with coefficients in $\N[q]$. \end{conjecture} \end{dashedbox} Since $H_n(X;1)=h_1^n$, both plethysms equal $h_1^{ab}$ at $q=1$, so the numerator of $F_{a,b}$ is divisible by $1-q$; since $H_n(X;0)=h_n$, the conjecture at $q=0$ reduces to Foulkes' conjecture. Bergeron proved the conjecture at $q=1$ and showed that Foulkes' inequality also orders the coefficients of $q^1$ \citep[Section~3]{bergeron2017foulkes}, so the known cases control only the two lowest powers of $q$. Recall that $h_b[h_a]$ and $h_a[h_b]$ are characters of the domain and range of the \emph{Foulkes--Howe map} \begin{equation}\label{spp:map} \Sym^b(\Sym^a V)\longrightarrow\Sym^a(\Sym^b V), \end{equation} so Foulkes' conjecture follows whenever this map is surjective. Our first main result shows that this approach survives when the inner factor is graded. The polynomial $H_a$ is the graded Frobenius character of the coinvariant algebra $R_a$ of $S_a$, so replacing $\Sym^aW$ by $\mathcal H_a(W)=(R_a\otimes W^{\otimes a})^{S_a}$ grades the inner factor. Multiplication then maps $\Sym^b(\mathcal H_a(V))$ to $\mathcal H_a(\Sym^bV)$, and in coinvariant degree zero this map is \eqref{spp:map}. \begin{dashedbox} \begin{theorem}[Graded lift]\label{spp:currenttheorem} Suppose the canonical map \eqref{spp:map} is surjective for every finite-dimensional complex $V$, for a fixed pair $a,b\ge1$. Then multiplication gives a natural degree-preserving surjection \begin{equation}\label{spp:halflift} \SPSym^b\bigl(\mathcal H_a(V)\bigr) \longrightarrow \mathcal H_a\bigl(\SPSym^bV\bigr) \end{equation} for every $V$. Consequently \begin{equation}\label{spp:halfpositive} h_b[H_a]-H_a[h_b]\in\mathbb N[q]\{s_\lambda\}. \end{equation} \end{theorem} \end{dashedbox} The proof (Section~\ref{spp:currentlift}) uses derivations that multiply the $i$th tensor row by a power of the $i$th coinvariant variable. They preserve the image of multiplication and carry degree zero to every coinvariant degree, so surjectivity propagates from degree zero. The argument needs only that $R_a$ is generated by variables that $S_a$ permutes, so it applies equally to the Garsia--Haiman modules, whose characters are the modified Macdonald polynomials $\widetilde H_\mu$, $\mu\vdash a$. Under the same hypothesis, therefore, $h_b[\widetilde H_\mu]-\widetilde H_\mu[h_b]\in\N[q,t]\{s_\lambda\}$ (Corollary~\ref{spp:macdonaldlift}). Theorem~\ref{spp:currenttheorem} assumes that \eqref{spp:map} is surjective, which the annihilator argument of \citet{openai2026quadratic} proves for $b\ge a(a-1)$. Our second main result slightly improves their bound. \begin{dashedbox} \begin{theorem}[Surjectivity]\label{spp:main} For every $a\ge2$, every integer $b\ge(a-1)^2$, and every finite-dimensional complex vector space $V$, the map \eqref{spp:map} is surjective. Consequently $h_b[h_a]-h_a[h_b]$ is Schur positive in this range. \end{theorem} \end{dashedbox} The annihilator argument shows that every symmetric form killing the image vanishes, by polarizing one variable at a time. We polarize by whole powers of an operator instead. A whole power stays injective in a wider range of degrees than its factors checked one by one (Lemma~\ref{spp:power}), and this lowers the bound from $a(a-1)$ to $(a-1)^2$. Together with Theorem~\ref{spp:currenttheorem}, Theorem~\ref{spp:main} makes the graded lift unconditional, so \eqref{spp:halfpositive} holds for every $b\ge(a-1)^2$ (Corollary~\ref{spp:halfbound}). Our third main result concerns Bergeron's $F_{a,b}$ itself. The lift does not extend to a graded outer factor (Section~\ref{cur:section}), so we compute instead. The depth of $\lambda$ is $r=ab-\lambda_1$, the number of boxes below its first row. The coefficients of depth $r$ depend on $b$ only through a polynomial of degree at most $r$ in $q^b$ (Theorem~\ref{thm:depth}). We expand this polynomial in Gaussian binomial coefficients in $b$, which have nonnegative coefficients and increase with $b$. This Gaussian Newton expansion therefore proves positivity and monotonicity for every $b$ at once whenever its coefficients are nonnegative. \begin{dashedbox} \begin{theorem}[Positivity at bounded depth]\label{nw:layers} For every $b\ge a\ge4$, every Schur coefficient of $F_{a,b}$ of depth at most six belongs to $\mathbb N[q]$. The same conclusion holds through depth seven if $a\ge5$, through depth eight if $a\ge6$, and through depth ten if $a=7$. In each of these ranges, the Gaussian Newton coefficients based at $b=a$ are nonnegative, and for each fixed partition below the first row the coefficient increases coefficientwise with $b$. \end{theorem} \end{dashedbox} The inner size $a$ is unbounded as well, and a second Gaussian Newton expansion in $q^a$ reduces each range to finitely many identities that are exact over $\Q(q)$ (Appendix~\ref{app:certificates}). For each fixed partition below the first row, the monotonicity is Bergeron's $q$-stability conjecture \citep[Conjecture~2]{bergeron2017foulkes}. Corollary~\ref{cor:depth-three-stability} proves it for every $a\ge2$ at depth three, where the three coefficients are multiples of one explicit polynomial. Finally, Section~\ref{cur:section} returns to maps. With both factors graded, the relations among the coefficients depend on how the $ab$ positions are grouped into blocks, and extending the canonical map polynomially does not respect them (Proposition~\ref{gka:quadratic-descent}). Projecting onto harmonic polynomials avoids this obstruction, giving a space of equivariant maps that never lower degree. It remains open whether these maps together expand every graded subspace; if they do, the conjecture follows (Theorem~\ref{cur:criterion}). \subsection{Conventions}\label{sec:conventions} We work over $\C$. Plethysm acts on every grading variable through the Adams operations $\psi_r(p_j)=p_{rj}$, $\psi_r(q)=q^r$, and $\psi_r(t)=t^r$. Set \[ [n]_q=\frac{1-q^n}{1-q},\qquad \qbin nk=\frac{(q;q)_n}{(q;q)_k(q;q)_{n-k}} \quad(0\le k\le n), \] with $\qbin nk=0$ for $k>n$. Unless stated otherwise, $a,b\ge2$ are integers and $N=ab$. For $\mu=1^{m_1}2^{m_2}\cdots$, put $z_\mu=\nlprod_r r^{m_r}m_r!$. For $\lambda\vdash N$, $S^\lambda$ is the irreducible $S_N$-module, $\chi^\lambda$ its character, and $d_\lambda=\dim S^\lambda$; for a partition $\mu$, put $n(\mu)=\nlsum_i(i-1)\mu_i$. For a semiring $K$, $K\{s_\lambda\}$ is the set of symmetric functions whose Schur coefficients lie in $K$. \section{The canonical map and its graded lift}\label{spp:canonical} Theorem~\ref{spp:main} supplies the surjectivity that Theorem~\ref{spp:currenttheorem} assumes, so we prove it first. Both proofs view the canonical map \eqref{spp:map} as arranging the tensor positions in a rectangle and averaging over the symmetry groups of its codomain, where we identify a symmetric power with invariant tensors by \[ \operatorname{Av}_a(w_1\otimes\cdots\otimes w_a) =\frac1{a!}\nlsum_{\sigma\in S_a} w_{\sigma(1)}\otimes\cdots\otimes w_{\sigma(a)}. \] In this picture the image of \eqref{spp:map} is the degree-$b$ part of the subalgebra of $((\SPSym V)^{\otimes a})^{S_a}$ generated by $\SPSym^aV$. \subsection{Whole powers of polarization} The proof of Theorem~\ref{spp:main} keeps the annihilator construction of \citet{openai2026quadratic} and replaces its successive first derivatives by whole powers of polarization operators. The injectivity of these powers is the $\mathfrak{sl}_2$ argument in the proof of \citet[Lemma~2.5]{OpenAI}; the following lemma records it with a norm bound. For independent vector variables $U=(U_i)$ and $Y=(Y_i)$, put \[ D=D_{Y,U}:=\nlsum_iY_i\frac{\partial}{\partial U_i},\qquad E=\nlsum_iU_i\frac{\partial}{\partial Y_i},\qquad H=N_U-N_Y, \] where $N_U$ and $N_Y$ count degrees in $U$ and $Y$. We use the Fischer inner product, for which monomials are orthogonal and $\|U^\alpha Y^\beta\|^2=\alpha!\,\beta!$, also for spectator variables. Then $D^*=E$, $[E,D]=H$, and $[H,D]=-2D$, so each application of $D$ lowers by two the weight $H$, which is the excess of the degree in $U$ over the degree in $Y$. When the variables have at least two coordinates, $D$ alone is injective on a space of fixed bidegree only if the weight is positive. If we checked $D^L$ one factor at a time, we would therefore need weight at least $2L-1$, whereas on whole $\mathfrak{sl}_2$ strings weight $L$ suffices. Write $\SPfall{x}{L}=x(x-1)\cdots(x-L+1)$, with empty product one. \begin{lemma}[Power polarization]\label{spp:power} Let $f$ have bidegree $(p,s)$ in $(U,Y)$, with arbitrary spectator variables. If $L\ge0$ and $m=p-s\ge L$, then \begin{equation}\label{spp:powernorm} \|D^L f\|^2\ge L!\,\SPfall{m}{L}\,\|f\|^2. \end{equation} In particular, $D^L$ is injective on this bidegree space, including the boundary $p-s=L$. \end{lemma} \begin{proof} Decompose each space of polynomials of fixed total degree into orthogonal $\mathfrak{sl}_2$ strings. In a string of highest weight $\ell$, a vector of weight $m$ is at position $j=(\ell-m)/2\ge0$. The squared norm multiplier for $D^L$ is \[ \nlprod_{u=0}^{L-1}(j+u+1)(\ell-j-u) =\nlprod_{u=0}^{L-1}(j+u+1)(m+j-u). \] Since $m\ge L$, this multiplier is at least $\nlprod_{u=0}^{L-1}(u+1)(m-u)=L!\,\SPfall{m}{L}>0$ when $L>0$. For $L=0$ the assertion is the identity. Orthogonality gives the estimate for an arbitrary sum of strings. Spectator variables do not alter the calculation. \end{proof} For $L>0$, the threshold in this lemma is sharp on the full bidegree space when $\dim V\ge2$. If $0\le p-sn+1$ vanish. Every positive Newton expansion is therefore coefficientwise increasing in $n$, which gives the monotonicity assertion of Theorem~\ref{nw:layers}. \section{Grading both factors} \label{cur:section} With both factors graded, positivity becomes a comparison of degrees. The modules $\mathcal P=M_{a,b}$ and $\mathcal Q=M_{b,a}$ of \eqref{eq:III-modules} have characters $P_{a,b}=H_b[H_a]$ and $Q_{a,b}=H_a[H_b]$, and both are ungraded copies of $\mathbb C[S_N]$. Each irreducible $S^\lambda$ therefore occurs equally often in the two modules, and $[s_\lambda q^k]F_{a,b}$ counts how many more of its copies $\mathcal P$ places in degrees at most $k$. In the language of Paper~II \citep{foulkesII}, the conjecture says that on every isotype the degree distribution of $\mathcal P$ is stochastically smaller than that of $\mathcal Q$. It would suffice to have an injective equivariant map from $\mathcal P$ to $\mathcal Q$ that never lowers degree, because such a map embeds the copies above each degree $k$ in $\mathcal P$ into those above $k$ in $\mathcal Q$. The lift of Theorem~\ref{spp:currenttheorem} does not provide such a map. It uses one coefficient algebra for every position, whereas here the relations among the coefficients depend on how the positions are grouped into blocks, and extending the canonical map polynomially does not respect them (Proposition~\ref{gka:quadratic-descent}). Projecting onto harmonic representatives repairs the relations and gives an explicit space of maps that never lower degree, built in Appendix~\ref{gka:free-currents}. No single map in this space needs to be injective; it suffices that the maps together expand every graded subspace. Fix $b\ge a\ge2$ and $N=ab$, and put \[ U=\mathcal P_0=\Ind_{S_a\wr S_b}^{S_N}\mathbf1,\qquad D_P=b\binom a2+\binom b2,\quad D_Q=a\binom b2+\binom a2. \] The integers $D_P,D_Q$ are the top degrees of $\mathcal P$ and $\mathcal Q$. The maps run from $\mathcal P$ to $\mathcal Q$, and their adjoints run in the direction of the filtered matchings of Paper~II \citep[Proposition~2.3]{foulkesII}. We realize $\mathcal P$ and $\mathcal Q$ as spaces of harmonic polynomials with coefficients in permutation modules (Appendix~\ref{gka:free-currents}), write $P_{\mathcal Q}$ for the orthogonal projection onto $\mathcal Q$, and use the operators $A_k^U(d)$ of Proposition~\ref{gka:free-factor}, which are positive and monic of degree $k$ in a parameter $d$. These modules and maps have rational forms; subspaces below are taken after extending scalars to $\mathbb C$. \subsection{The current space} We call an equivariant map from $U=\mathcal P_0$ into $\mathcal Q_r$ a seed. Appendix~\ref{gka:free-currents} extends each seed to a map $T_d$ on all of $\mathcal P$ that never lowers degree and depends polynomially on the parameter $d$. The parameter is auxiliary, so we keep every coefficient of this dependence. Put $\overline A_k^U(\varepsilon)=\varepsilon^k A_k^U(1/\varepsilon)$. This reversed factor is a polynomial of degree at most $k$ in $\varepsilon$, including at $\varepsilon=0$, because $A_k^U(d)$ is monic of degree $k$ in $d$ (Proposition~\ref{gka:free-factor}). For an equivariant homogeneous seed $\sigma_r\colon U\to\mathcal Q_r$, let $\widehat\sigma_r(f\otimes u)=f\,\sigma_r(u)$. On the harmonic modules, define the maps $\mathcal A_j(\sigma_r)$ by their degree blocks \begin{equation}\label{cur:coefficients} \mathcal A_j(\sigma_r)|_{\mathcal P_k} =P_{\mathcal Q,k+r}\widehat\sigma_r [\varepsilon^j]\overline A_k^U(\varepsilon)|_{\mathcal P_k}. \end{equation} The block is zero when $j>k$ or $k+r>D_Q$. By \eqref{gka:harmonic-block}, these maps are the coefficients of $T_d$ after removing the factor $(d/N)^k$ and setting $\varepsilon=1/d$. Each map is equivariant and has degree shift $r\ge0$. The operators $A_k^U$ and the projections in \eqref{cur:coefficients} are evaluated before selecting an isotypic component. Taking all rational equivariant seeds gives the current space \begin{equation*} \mathscr M_{a,b}=\Span_{\mathbb Q} \bigl\{\mathcal A_j(\sigma_r): \sigma_r\in\Hom_{\mathbb Q[S_N]}(U,\mathcal Q_r),\ 0\le r\le D_Q,\ 0\le j\le D_P\bigr\}. \end{equation*} The module $\mathcal Q$ is an ungraded regular module, so $\dim\Hom_{\mathbb Q[S_N]}(U,\mathcal Q)=\dim U$. Linearity in the seed therefore gives \begin{equation*} \dim\mathscr M_{a,b}\le(D_P+1)\dim U =(D_P+1)\frac{(ab)!}{(a!)^b b!}. \end{equation*} In particular, bases of the finite seed Hom spaces give a homogeneous spanning family for $\mathscr M_{a,b}$, so for each pair $a,b$ the condition below is a finite problem in linear algebra. Write the isotypic decompositions as \[ \mathcal P=\bigoplus_{\lambda\vdash N} S^\lambda\otimes\mathcal E_\lambda^P,\qquad \mathcal Q=\bigoplus_{\lambda\vdash N} S^\lambda\otimes\mathcal E_\lambda^Q. \] Both multiplicity spaces have total dimension $d_\lambda$. By Schur's lemma, each map in $\mathscr M_{a,b}$ acts on multiplicity spaces; let $\mathscr M_\lambda$ be the resulting space of complex matrices from $\mathcal E_\lambda^P$ to $\mathcal E_\lambda^Q$, and define \[ \mathscr M_\lambda(W) =\Span\{Mv:M\in\mathscr M_\lambda,\ v\in W\}. \] Call $\lambda$ \emph{neutral} when $\dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,k}^P=\dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,k}^Q$ for every degree $k$. Such an isotype contributes zero to $F_{a,b}$. \subsection{A sufficient condition} We ask that the matrices in $\mathscr M_\lambda$ together expand every graded subspace of $\mathcal E_\lambda^P$, \begin{equation}\label{cur:expansion} \dim\mathscr M_\lambda(W)\ge\dim W \quad\text{for every nonneutral $\lambda$ and every graded } W\subseteq\mathcal E_\lambda^P. \end{equation} Here graded means $W=\bigoplus_k(W\cap\mathcal E_{\lambda,k}^P)$. A subspace violating this inequality is called \emph{shrunk}. On the degree tails of $\mathcal E_\lambda^P$, hypothesis \eqref{cur:expansion} gives the inequalities that positivity of $F_{a,b}$ requires. \begin{theorem}[A sufficient condition]\label{cur:criterion} For fixed $b\ge a\ge2$, hypothesis~\eqref{cur:expansion} implies \[ F_{a,b}(X;q)=\frac{H_b[H_a]-H_a[H_b]}{1-q} \in\mathbb N[q]\{s_\lambda\}. \] \end{theorem} \begin{proof} Fix a nonneutral $\lambda$ and an integer $k\ge0$. Every generator of $\mathscr M_\lambda$ has nonnegative degree shift. For the graded tail $W=\mathcal E_{\lambda,\ge k+1}^P$, hypothesis \eqref{cur:expansion} therefore gives \[ \dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,\ge k+1}^P \le\dim\mathscr M_\lambda(W) \le\dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,\ge k+1}^Q. \] Subtracting from the common total dimension $d_\lambda$ yields \[ [s_\lambda q^k]F_{a,b} =\nlsum_{j\le k}\bigl(\dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,j}^P -\dim\mathcal E_{\lambda,j}^Q\bigr) \ge0. \] Neutral isotypes contribute zero. Equality of the ungraded characters makes the divided difference a polynomial, proving the assertion. \end{proof} The proof uses hypothesis~\eqref{cur:expansion} only on degree tails. We state it for every graded subspace because it then excludes shrunk subspaces of every kind (by homogeneity), which is the condition that operator scaling tests through capacity; the supplement \citep{foulkesIIIsupp} uses this to certify \eqref{cur:expansion} on individual blocks. It remains open whether hypothesis~\eqref{cur:expansion} holds in general, and Proposition~\ref{gka:quadratic-descent} shows why it does not follow from the one-layer surjection. \begin{aiusage} The results in this paper were developed through extensive use of AI assistants in sustained mathematical discussion, including failed attempts, counterexamples, audits, and repairs. AI assistants also helped with exact computations, proof checks, and exposition. 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Thrall. \newblock On symmetrized {K}ronecker powers and the structure of the free {L}ie ring. \newblock \emph{American Journal of Mathematics}, 64:\penalty0 371--388, 1942. \newblock \doi{10.2307/2371691}. \end{thebibliography} \appendix \addtocontents{toc}{\protect\setcounter{tocdepth}{1}} \begingroup \renewcommand{\contentsname}{Appendix contents} \bigskip \noindent\begin{minipage}{\linewidth} \tableofcontents \end{minipage} \endgroup \section{Positivity at bounded depth}\label{app:certificates} Theorem~\ref{nw:layers} concerns unbounded $a$ and $b$, so its finite certificates must determine the coefficients as polynomials in both $q^a$ and $q^b$. The degree bounds from the restriction formula make this reconstruction finite. At the first nonzero layer, the same formula gives a closed expression valid for every inner size. \subsection{The first nonzero layer}\label{sec:layer} The three coefficients at depth three share one positive factor, so a single polynomial governs their positivity, their Newton expansion, and their stability. The only delicate point is the division by $[3]_q$ in this factor, since a quotient of polynomials with nonnegative coefficients can have negative ones; the residues of $a$ and $b$ modulo $3$ settle it. \begin{samepage} \begin{theorem}[The first nonzero layer]\label{thm:main} Let $2\le aN-3$ vanish. The three coefficients at depth three are \begin{align*} [s_{(N-3,3)}]F_{a,b}&=q\Gamma_{a,b}(q),\\ [s_{(N-3,2,1)}]F_{a,b}&=(1+q^2)\Gamma_{a,b}(q),\\ [s_{(N-3,1,1,1)}]F_{a,b}&=q\Gamma_{a,b}(q). \end{align*} \end{theorem} \end{samepage} The vanishing concerns the four shapes $(N)$, $(N-1,1)$, $(N-2,2)$, and $(N-2,1,1)$. \begin{proof}[Proof of Theorem~\ref{thm:main}] Theorem~\ref{thm:depth} at $r\le3$ gives the three restrictions explicitly, and Proposition~\ref{prop:triangular} converts their differences into the Schur coefficients of $F_{a,b}$. Abbreviate \[ A=[a]_q,\quad B=[b]_q,\quad C_a=\qbin{a}{2},\ C_b=\qbin{b}{2},\quad E_a=\qbin{a}{3},\ E_b=\qbin{b}{3}. \] The first three occupancy formulas are \begin{align} \mathcal R^{(1)}_{a,b}&=AB\,s_1,\label{eq:R1}\\ \mathcal R^{(2)}_{a,b} &=B C_a H_2(Y;q)+C_b H_2[A Y],\label{eq:R2}\\ \mathcal R^{(3)}_{a,b} &=B E_a H_3(Y;q)+(1+q)A C_aC_b\,H_2(Y;q)h_1(Y) +E_bH_3[A Y].\label{eq:R3} \end{align} The middle term uses the identity $[b]_q[b-1]_q=(1+q)C_b$. \emph{\textbf{Cancellation through depth two.}} We substitute $p_1[[n]_q]=[n]_q$ and $p_2[[n]_q]=[n]_{q^2}$ in $H_2=s_2+qs_{11}$ and obtain the two Schur coefficients \begin{align*} [s_2]H_2[[n]_qY]&=[n]_q+2q^2\qbin{n}{2},\\ [s_{11}]H_2[[n]_qY]&=q[n]_q+q(1+q^2)\qbin{n}{2}. \end{align*} Consequently the coefficients of \eqref{eq:R2} are \[ B C_a+A C_b+2q^2C_aC_b, \qquad q\bigl(B C_a+A C_b+(1+q^2)C_aC_b\bigr). \] Both are symmetric under $a\leftrightarrow b$. The invariants at depth zero are $1$ in either order, and \eqref{eq:R1} is symmetric as well. Proposition~\ref{prop:triangular} proves the stated cancellation of the four top Schur coefficients. \emph{\textbf{The three depth-three coefficients.}} The three terms of \eqref{eq:R3} need three families of Schur coefficients. For $\nu\vdash3$, put \[ K_\nu(q)=[s_\nu]H_3,\qquad \ell_\nu(q)=[s_\nu](H_2h_1),\qquad L_\nu(n;q)=[s_\nu(Y)]H_3[[n]_qY]. \] The coefficient $L_\nu(n;q)$ is a polynomial in $q^n$ of degree at most three that vanishes at $n=0$. The Gaussian coefficients $[n]_q$, $\qbin n2$, and $\qbin n3$ form a basis for these polynomials. Therefore \begin{equation}\label{eq:Newton} L_\nu(n;q)=K_\nu(q)[n]_q+u_\nu(q)\qbin n2+v_\nu(q)\qbin n3. \end{equation} The coefficient of $[n]_q$ follows by taking $n=1$, and $u_\nu$ follows by taking $n=2$, in \[ L_\nu(n;q)=\nlsum_{\mu\vdash3} \frac{\kappa_3(\mu;q)\chi^\nu(\mu)}{z_\mu} \nlprod_{r\in\mu}[n]_{q^r}, \] and the three $S_3$ characters give \begin{center} \begin{tabular}{@{}llll@{}} \toprule $\nu$&$K_\nu$&$\ell_\nu$&$u_\nu$\\\midrule $(3)$&$1$&$1$&$q^2(1+q)(q+2)$\\ $(2,1)$&$q+q^2$&$1+q$&$q(1+q)^2(2q^2+1)$\\ $(1,1,1)$&$q^3$&$q$&$q^2(1+q)(q^3+q+1)$\\\bottomrule \end{tabular} \end{center} The coefficients $v_\nu$ cancel from the difference of the two orders. Using \eqref{eq:R3} and \eqref{eq:Newton}, the $s_\nu$ coefficient of $\mathcal R^{(3)}_{a,b}-\mathcal R^{(3)}_{b,a}$ is $u_\nu(E_bC_a-E_aC_b)+(1+q)\ell_\nu(A-B)C_aC_b$. We divide by $1-q$ and use the elementary Gaussian identities $E_bC_a-E_aC_b=C_aC_bq^{a-2}[b-a]_q/[3]_q$ and $A-B=-q^a[b-a]_q$; the coefficient becomes \[ C_aC_bq^{a-2}[b-a]_q\, \frac{u_\nu/[3]_q-(1+q)q^2\ell_\nu}{1-q}. \] For the three rows of the table, the final factor is respectively $q^2(1+q)^2/[3]_q$, $q(1+q)^2(1+q^2)/[3]_q$, and $q^2(1+q)^2/[3]_q$. The lower layers have already canceled, so Proposition~\ref{prop:triangular} identifies the three resulting products with the Schur coefficients of $F_{a,b}$ at depth three. They are therefore $q\Gamma_{a,b}$, $(1+q^2)\Gamma_{a,b}$, and $q\Gamma_{a,b}$, as Theorem~\ref{thm:main} asserts, because $C_aC_bq^{a-2}(1+q)^2[b-a]_q/[3]_q=q^{-1}\Gamma_{a,b}$. \emph{\textbf{Positivity of $\Gamma_{a,b}$.}} It remains to prove that division by $[3]_q$ in \eqref{eq:Gamma} does not introduce negative coefficients. If $a\equiv b\equiv2\pmod3$, then $3$ divides $b-a$, and $[b-a]_q/[3]_q=[(b-a)/3]_{q^3}\in\N[q]$. Otherwise some $n\in\{a,b\}$ satisfies $n\ge3$ and $n\equiv0$ or $1\pmod3$, and we show $\qbin n2/[3]_q\in\N[q]$. Write $\qbin n2=[n]_q[n-1]_q/[2]_q$; one of $n$ and $n-1$ is divisible by three. If that integer is odd, the other one is even, so $[3]_q$ divides the first $q$-integer and $[2]_q$ the second, each with a geometric sum as quotient. If it is even, write it as $6r$ and the other as $m=6r\pm1$; the quotient becomes $[r]_{q^6}(1-q+q^2)[m]_q$, and the last two factors multiply to $1+\nlsum_{j=2}^{m-1}q^j+q^{m+1}$, which has nonnegative coefficients. All remaining factors of \eqref{eq:Gamma} are in $\N[q]$. \end{proof} \subsection{Stability of the depth-three coefficients} Bergeron's $q$-stability conjecture asks that each coefficient with a fixed tail increase with $b$. At depth three the common factor in Theorem~\ref{thm:main} reduces this to the differences of $\Gamma_{a,b}$. The first difference in $b$ still carries the factor $1/[3]_q$. The mixed difference in $a$ and $b$ cancels it and factors positively, and summing mixed differences over $a$ recovers the first difference. Extend $\Gamma$ by $\Gamma_{1,b}=\Gamma_{a,a}=0$ and write $D^{\Gamma}_{a,b}=\Gamma_{a,b+1}-\Gamma_{a,b}$. \begin{corr}[Depth-three stability]\label{cor:depth-three-stability} For integers $1\le a\le b$, \begin{equation}\label{eq:gamma-first-difference} D^{\Gamma}_{a,b}=[2]_q[b]_q\nlsum_{i=1}^{a-1} q^{2i+b-3}[i]_q[b-i]_q\in\N[q]. \end{equation} For integers $1\le a