% main.tex -- Forced 3-adic anomalies of S3 cubic fields.  Draft 2026-10-24.
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%   [Proved]     complete proof given here, from the standard results cited
%   [Numerical]  computation; GRH-conditional unit groups unless said otherwise
%   [Heuristic]  model or expectation, not a theorem
%   [Lit]        quoted from the literature
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\title{Forced $3$-adic anomalies of $S_3$ cubic fields}
\author{Shawn Krisman}
\email{krisman.shawn@gmail.com}
\date{\today}

\begin{document}

\begin{abstract}
For a totally real cubic field $k$ in which a prime $p$ is unramified, the $p$-adic regulator $R_p(k)$ is a $2\times 2$
determinant of $p$-adic logarithms of units, and $v_p(R_p(k))\ge 2$ always. Call $k$ \emph{anomalous at $p$} if
$v_p(R_p(k))\ge 3$. In the complete list of the $592\,421$ totally real cubic fields of discriminant at most $10^7$ the
anomaly rate at every prime $5\le p\le 31$ agrees with the Haar random-matrix value $1/p+1/p^2-1/p^3$, whereas at $p=3$ it is
$0.381$ instead of $11/27\approx 0.407$. We explain the $p=3$ behaviour for fields of fundamental discriminant $D$, $3\nmid D$.
Let $F=\Q(\sqrt D)$, $h=\rk_3\Cl(F)$ and $d=\rk_3\Cl_9(F)$. We prove that $d\in\{h+1,h+2\}$ and that $d=h+2$ forces every
cubic field of discriminant $D$ to be anomalous at $3$. When $h=1$ we determine the reduction modulo $3$ of the unit
logarithms of $k$ completely, in terms of $d$ and of a single cup product in the Galois cohomology of the maximal pro-$3$
extension of $F$ unramified outside $3$. The forcing comes from the fact that this cohomology in degree $2$ is entirely of
sign type, which in turn rests on the non-semisimplicity of $\F_3[S_3]$; for $p\ge5$ no such mechanism exists. The results
force one or two $3$-adic digits of $R_3(k)$ and say nothing about Leopoldt's conjecture itself.
\end{abstract}

\maketitle

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Introduction}
% ======================================================================================================================

\subsection{Leopoldt's conjecture for cubic fields as a $2\times2$ determinant}
Let $k$ be a totally real cubic field with fundamental units $u_1,u_2$ and let $p$ be a prime unramified in $k$. Fix the
three embeddings $\sigma_1,\sigma_2,\sigma_3\colon k\to\overline{\Q}_p$. The $p$-adic regulator
\[
R_p(k)=\det\bigl(\log_p\sigma_i(u_j)\bigr)_{1\le i,j\le 2}
\]
is well defined up to sign, and Leopoldt's conjecture \cite{Leopoldt} for $k$ at $p$ is the statement $R_p(k)\neq0$.
Leopoldt's conjecture is known for abelian fields by Brumer's $p$-adic Baker theorem \cite{Brumer}; for non-Galois cubic
fields it is open. % [Lit] FJ intro; JN appendix
Hofmann, Johnston and Nickel \cite[Appendix, Thm.~A.2]{JN} verified it at $p=3$ for every totally real Galois $S_3$
extension $E/\Q$ with $\operatorname{Disc}(O_E)<10^{20}$ (for an $S_3$-extension, Leopoldt's conjecture for $E$ and for its
cubic subfield are equivalent \cite{FJ}), and Ferri and Johnston \cite{FJ} construct infinite families of totally real
$S_3$-extensions satisfying it at any prescribed finite set of primes.

Since $\log_p$ of a unit is divisible by $p$ in the unramified completions, $v_p(R_p(k))\ge2$. We call
$\operatorname{depth}_p(k):=v_p(R_p(k))-2$ the \emph{depth} and say $k$ is \emph{anomalous at $p$} if the depth is positive.
% [Lit] GrasKL, GrasPrat
In Gras's language $R_p(k)/p^2$ is the normalised regulator, and (when $p\nmid h_k$) $k$ is anomalous at $p$ exactly when it
is not $p$-rational \cite{GrasKL,GrasPrat}; see also \cite{MNQD,JNQD}. If the $2\times 2$ matrix of reduced logarithms were a
Haar-random matrix over $\Z_p$, the anomaly probability would be
\[
q(p)=1-(1-p^{-1})(1-p^{-2})=\tfrac1p+\tfrac1{p^2}-\tfrac1{p^3}.
\]
For cyclic cubic fields the Galois symmetry changes the model, and Hofmann and Zhang \cite{HZ} have studied the valuations
of $R_p$ in that case; non-Galois cubic fields are not treated there.

\subsection{The survey}
% [Numerical] fe14_survey.py, runs/fe14_survey_D10000000.json; GRH-conditional unit groups (bnfinit without certification)
We computed $R_p(k)$ modulo a high power of $p$ for every totally real cubic field of discriminant $d_k\le10^7$ (there are
$592\,421$ of them) and every prime $3\le p\le 31$ unramified in $k$. The unit groups were computed with \textsc{PARI/GP}
\cite{PARI} assuming the generalised Riemann hypothesis; all numerical statements in this paper inherit that caveat, and none
of the theorems depend on it. Table~\ref{tab:survey} shows the result.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrccr}
\toprule
$p$ & fields & anomaly rate & $q(p)$ & $z$ \\
\midrule
3 & 330903 & 0.3814 & 0.4074 & -30.4 \\
5 & 426455 & 0.2309 & 0.2320 & -1.6 \\
7 & 477175 & 0.1597 & 0.1603 & -1.1 \\
11 & 525213 & 0.0988 & 0.0984 & +0.9 \\
13 & 538483 & 0.0820 & 0.0824 & -0.9 \\
17 & 556937 & 0.0630 & 0.0621 & +2.9 \\
19 & 561968 & 0.0551 & 0.0553 & -0.5 \\
23 & 567513 & 0.0449 & 0.0453 & -1.2 \\
29 & 572657 & 0.0355 & 0.0356 & -0.6 \\
31 & 574070 & 0.0330 & 0.0333 & -1.0 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{Anomaly rates over all totally real cubic fields with $d_k\le10^7$ and $p$ unramified ($z$ = deviation from
$q(p)$ in standard errors).}
\label{tab:survey}
\end{table}

At every $p\ge5$ the Haar value fits within the expected fluctuation. At $p=3$ the rate is $0.3814$ against $11/27=0.4074$,
a deviation of $30$ standard errors. The deficit is not a small-discriminant effect: the rate stabilises near $0.385$
(Table~\ref{tab:p3bins}). The purpose of this paper is to explain it.

\subsection{Results}
Let $D>0$ be a fundamental discriminant with $3\nmid D$, let $F=\Q(\sqrt D)$ and let $k$ be a cubic field with $d_k=D$.
Then the Galois closure $K$ of $k$ is a cyclic cubic extension of $F$ unramified at every place, so
$h:=\rk_3\Cl(F)\ge1$, and there are $(3^h-1)/2$ such fields $k$. Put $d:=\rk_3\Cl_9(F)$, the $3$-rank of the ray class group
of $F$ modulo $9$. Let $\cG=\Gal(F_S(3)/F)$ be the Galois group of the maximal pro-$3$ extension of $F$ unramified outside
$S=\{3,\infty\}$; then $d=\dim_{\F_3}H^1(\cG,\F_3)$. Let $\chi_K,\chi_\cyc\in H^1(\cG,\F_3)$ cut out $K$ and
$F\cdot\Q(\zeta_9)^+$.

\begin{theorem}[forced anomaly]\label{thmA}
% [Proved]
One has $d\in\{h+1,h+2\}$, and $d=h+2$ if and only if every $x\in F^\times$ such that $(x)$ is the cube of an ideal is a cube
in $F\otimes\Q_3$. If $d=h+2$, then every cubic field $k$ with $d_k=D$ satisfies $v_3(R_3(k))\ge3$.
\end{theorem}

For $h=1$ the condition reads: the fundamental unit $\eps_F$ and an element $\alpha$ with $(\alpha)=\mathfrak b^3$,
$\mathfrak b$ of order $3$ in $\Cl(F)$, are both cubes in $F\otimes\Q_3$; equivalently the torsion $T_3(F)$ of the Galois
group of the maximal abelian pro-$3$ extension of $F$ unramified outside $3$ is not cyclic (Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}).

For $h=1$ we can say exactly what happens. Let $\lb(E_k)\subset O_k/3$ be the image of the units of $k$ under the reduced
logarithm $u\mapsto\log_3(u)/3 \bmod 3$; it lies in the trace-zero plane, which contains the line $\F_3\cdot1$.

\begin{theorem}[$h=1$]\label{thmB}
% [Proved]
Suppose $h=1$ and put $c=1$ if $\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc=0$ in $H^2(\cG,\F_3)$ and $c=0$ otherwise. Then
\[
\rk_3\Cl_9(k)=d-1+c,\qquad \dim_{\F_3}\lb(E_k)=4-d-c,\qquad 1\in\lb(E_k)\iff c=0 .
\]
Consequently:
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{cccc}
\toprule
$d$ & $c$ & $\lb(E_k)$ & $\operatorname{depth}_3(k)$\\
\midrule
$2$ & $0$ & the trace-zero plane & $0$\\
$2$ & $1$ & a line $\neq\F_3\cdot1$ & $\ge1$\\
$3$ & $0$ & $\F_3\cdot1$ & $\ge1$\\
$3$ & $1$ & $0$ & $\ge2$\\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{theorem}

In words: in the forced stratum the reduced logarithms of all units of $k$ are \emph{rational} modulo $3$, i.e.\ every
unit of $k$ is, at every place above $3$, a rational $1$-unit times a local cube.

The reason is a parity phenomenon. By Poitou--Tate duality $H^2(\cG,\F_3)$ is dual to a group of Kummer classes of $F$ on
which $\Gal(F/\Q)$ acts by $-1$, so $H^2(\cG,\F_3)$ has no invariants under $\Gal(F/\Q)$ (Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}).
Hence the cup product of two sign-type characters of $\cG$ vanishes. When $d=h+2$ there is a sign-type character $\chi_E$
independent of the class-group characters, and the vanishing of $\chi_K\cup\chi_E$ lets $\chi_E$ lift to the
non-semisimple $\F_3[S_3]$-module $[\sgn;1]$, the reduction modulo $3$ of the reflection representation. Through Shapiro's
lemma the lift becomes a cyclic cubic extension of $k$ unramified outside $3$ and independent of $k\cdot\Q(\zeta_9)^+$, and
two such extensions are exactly what anomaly means (Lemma~\ref{lem:depth}). For $p\ge5$ the module $\F_p[S_3/S_2]$ is
semisimple and the mechanism disappears (Section~\ref{sec:pge5}), in accordance with Table~\ref{tab:survey}.

\subsection{The mixture law}
% [Numerical] fe16b_scan.py, fe16c_analyze.py
Among the $259\,403$ fields of the survey with fundamental discriminant prime to $3$, the strata have weights $0.879$
($h=1$, $d=2$), $0.092$ ($h=1$, $d=3$), $0.028$ ($h=2$, $d=3$) and $0.0004$ ($h=2$, $d=4$). Theorem~\ref{thmA} accounts for
the second and fourth stratum (all $24\,009$ fields are anomalous), and Theorem~\ref{thmB} reduces the first to the vanishing
of one element of $\F_3$. If that element is equidistributed (a heuristic, Section~\ref{sec:d2}), the anomaly rate over
fundamental discriminants should be close to $0.879\cdot\frac13+0.092+0.028\cdot\frac{11}{27}+0.0004\approx0.397$; the
observed value is $0.390$, the difference coming from a small deficit in the first stratum that decreases with $D$
(Table~\ref{tab:bins}). Fields of non-fundamental discriminant $d_k=f^2D$, $f>1$, are not covered by our results; their
observed rate is $0.351$.

\subsection{Context and organisation}
The ingredients --- the ray class group modulo $p^2$ as a test of $p$-rationality \cite{GrasPrat}, the Shafarevich--Koch
formula, Poitou--Tate duality and Shapiro's lemma \cite{NSW,Koch,GrasCFT} --- are standard. We have not found
Theorems~\ref{thmA} or~\ref{thmB} in the literature on $p$-rational fields \cite{MNQD,JNQD,GrasPrat,LQ} or on $p$-adic
regulators of cubic fields \cite{HZ,JN,FJ}, but a statement of this kind may well be implicit in that literature and we make
no strong priority claim. In a much deeper setting, $p$-adic regulators of units --- determinants built from $p$-adic
logarithms and valuations of units --- give the leading terms of $p$-adic $L$-functions, as in the Gross--Stark conjecture proved by Dasgupta,
Kakde and Ventullo \cite{DKV}; here only the reduction modulo $3$ of such a determinant matters.

Section~\ref{sec:setup} fixes notation and proves the depth criterion. Section~\ref{sec:resolvent} studies $\cG$, and
Section~\ref{sec:proof} proves Theorems~\ref{thmA} and~\ref{thmB}. Section~\ref{sec:d2} discusses the generic stratum,
Section~\ref{sec:pge5} the primes $p\ge5$, Section~\ref{sec:numerics} the computations, and Section~\ref{sec:leopoldt} the
relation with Leopoldt's conjecture and with the function-field analogue.

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Set-up and the depth criterion}\label{sec:setup}
% ======================================================================================================================

Throughout, $D$, $F$, $h$, $d$, $k$, $K$ are as in the introduction. Write $\sigma$ for the generator of $\Gal(F/\Q)$ and
$\Gal(K/\Q)=S_3=\langle\tau,s\rangle$ with $\tau^3=s^2=1$, $k=K^{s}$, $F=K^{\tau}$. The prime $3$ is unramified in $K$.

\subsection{Reduced logarithms}
For $u\in O_k$ prime to $3$ put $\lambda(u)=\frac13\log_3(u)\in O_k\otimes\Z_3$, where $\log_3(u)=\log_3(u^N)/N$ with
$N=\operatorname{lcm}(3^f-1:f\le3)=104$, and let $\lb(u)\in O_k/3$ be its reduction. Since $\log(1+3y)\equiv 3y\pmod 9$,
\[
\lb(u)=N^{-1}\,\frac{u^N-1}{3}\bmod 3 .
\]
The same definitions apply to $F$ and $K$.

Let $C_k=\ker\bigl(\Cl_9(k)[3^\infty]\to\Cl(k)[3^\infty]\bigr)$.

\begin{lemma}\label{lem:depth}
% [Proved]
Let $k$ be a totally real cubic field in which $3$ is unramified, with unit group $E_k$.
\begin{enumerate}
\item $\lb(E_k)$ lies in the trace-zero plane of $O_k/3$, and $C_k\cong(O_k/3)/\lb(E_k)$.
\item $\operatorname{depth}_3(k)\ge1$ if and only if $\dim\lb(E_k)\le1$, if and only if $\dim C_k\ge2$.
\item If $\lb(E_k)=0$ then $\operatorname{depth}_3(k)\ge2$.
\end{enumerate}
\end{lemma}

\begin{proof}
Let $M=(\sigma_i\lambda(u_j))$, a $3\times2$ matrix over the ring of integers of an unramified extension of $\Q_3$; then
$R_3(k)=9\det(M_{i,j\le2})$. Each column of $M$ sums to $\Tr\lambda(u_j)=\lambda(N_{k/\Q}u_j)=\lambda(\pm1)=0$, so the three
$2\times2$ minors of $M$ agree up to sign, and $3\mid\det M_{\le2}$ if and only if the reduction $\overline M$ has rank at most
$1$. As $k\otimes\Q_3$ is unramified, the embeddings induce an isomorphism $(O_k/3)\otimes\overline{\F}_3\cong\overline{\F}_3^3$
carrying $\lb(u_j)$ to the $j$-th column of $\overline M$; linear dependence over $\overline\F_3$ and over $\F_3$ coincide.
This proves the first equivalence in (2), the trace statement in (1), and (3) (if $M\equiv0\bmod3$ then $9\mid\det M_{\le2}$).

Taking $3$-primary parts in the exact sequence $E_k\to(O_k/9)^\times\to\Cl_9(k)\to\Cl(k)\to1$, note that the $3$-Sylow
subgroup of $(O_k/9)^\times$ is $(1+3O_k)/(1+9O_k)$, isomorphic to $O_k/3$ via $1+3y\mapsto y$ because
$(1+3y)(1+3y')\equiv1+3(y+y')\pmod 9$. The $3$-component of the image of a unit $u$ is $u^{Nm}$ for any $m$ with
$Nm\equiv1\bmod 3$, and corresponds to $\lb(u)$. Hence $C_k\cong(O_k/3)/\lb(E_k)$, and $\dim C_k=3-\dim\lb(E_k)$.
\end{proof}

No hypothesis on Leopoldt's conjecture is used. Lemma~\ref{lem:depth} is the cubic case of Gras's ray-class test for
$p$-rationality \cite{GrasPrat}.

\subsection{Ray class groups as Galois cohomology}
Let $S=\{3,\infty\}$ and let $F_S(3)$ be the maximal pro-$3$ extension of $F$ unramified outside $S$. Since $K/F$ is
unramified, $K\subset F_S(3)$, and $F_S(3)/\Q$ is Galois. Put
\[
\cG=\Gal(F_S(3)/F),\quad \tG=\Gal(F_S(3)/\Q),\quad \Gamma_k=\Gal(F_S(3)/k),\quad H=\Gal(F_S(3)/K)\lhd\tG,
\]
so that $\tG/H\cong S_3$ and $[\tG:\cG]=2$. Let $F^{\rm ur}(3)$ be the maximal unramified pro-$3$ extension of $F$ and define
$\tG'$, $\Gamma_k'$ in the same way.

\begin{lemma}\label{lem:raycoh}
% [Proved]
For $L\in\{F,k,K\}$, $\rk_3\Cl_9(L)=\dim H^1(\Gal(F_S(3)/L),\F_3)$; for $L\in\{F,k\}$,
$\rk_3\Cl(L)=\dim H^1(\Gal(F^{\rm ur}(3)/L),\F_3)$.
\end{lemma}

\begin{proof}
Let $v\mid3$ be a place of $L$. As $L_v/\Q_3$ is unramified, $\log$ maps $1+3O_v$ isomorphically onto $3O_v$, so
$(1+3O_v)^3=1+9O_v$ and every character of order $3$ of $L_v^\times$ is trivial on $1+9O_v$. Real places do not ramify in
extensions of odd degree. Hence the cyclic cubic extensions of $L$ unramified outside $S$ correspond to the characters of
order $3$ of $\Cl_9(L)$. Each such extension $M/L$ lies in $F_S(3)$: the Galois closure of $MK$ over $F$ is a compositum of
cyclic cubic extensions of $K$ unramified outside $S$, hence a $3$-extension of $F$ unramified outside $S$. The unramified
statement is proved in the same way.
\end{proof}

\subsection{Some $\F_3[S_3]$-modules}
Write $\mathbf 1$ and $\sgn$ for the trivial and sign characters of $S_3$ over $\F_3$, viewed as $\tG$-modules through
$\tG\to S_3$. Let $P=\F_3[S_3/\langle s\rangle]$ be the permutation module on the three cosets, with basis $e_1,e_2,e_3$, where
$e_1$ is the coset fixed by $s$. Its submodules are $0\subset\F_3(e_1+e_2+e_3)\subset N\subset P$, where
$N=\{\sum a_ie_i:\sum a_i=0\}$; the successive quotients are $\mathbf 1$, $\sgn$, $\mathbf 1$ and $P$ is uniserial. Thus
there are exact sequences
\begin{equation}\label{eq:seqs}
0\to\mathbf1\to N\to\sgn\to0,\qquad 0\to N\to P\xrightarrow{\ \Sigma\ }\mathbf1\to0,\qquad 0\to\sgn\to P/\mathbf1\to\mathbf1\to0,
\end{equation}
none of which splits. By Shapiro's lemma, $H^i(\Gamma_k,\F_3)\cong H^i(\tG,P)$, and the map induced by the augmentation
$\Sigma$ is corestriction $H^i(\Gamma_k,\F_3)\to H^i(\tG,\F_3)$. Since $[\tG:\cG]=2$ is prime to $3$, for every
$\F_3[\tG]$-module $M$ we have $H^i(\tG,M)=H^i(\cG,M)^{\sigma}$ (invariants under $\tG/\cG$). We write $H^i(\cG,\F_3)^{\pm}$
for the $\pm1$-eigenspaces of $\sigma$; then $H^i(\tG,\mathbf 1)=H^i(\cG,\F_3)^+$ and $H^i(\tG,\sgn)=H^i(\cG,\F_3)^-$.

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{The resolvent field}\label{sec:resolvent}
% ======================================================================================================================

Let $W=\{x\in F^\times:(x)=\mathfrak b^3\text{ for an ideal }\mathfrak b\}/F^{\times3}$; then $\dim W=1+h$, spanned by
$\eps_F$ and elements $\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_h$ attached to a basis of $\Cl(F)[3]$. Let
\[
V_S=\{x\in W: x\in F_v^{\times3}\text{ for all }v\mid 3\}.
\]

\begin{prop}\label{prop:resolvent}
% [Proved]
\begin{enumerate}
\item $\sigma$ acts on $W$, and hence on $V_S$, by $-1$.
\item $H^2(\cG,\F_3)^+=0$; that is, $H^2(\tG,\mathbf1)=0$.
\item $d=1+\dim V_S$, and $V_S$ is the kernel of $\lb\colon W\to(O_F/3)^-$, a map to a line. Hence $d\in\{h+1,h+2\}$, and
$d=h+2$ if and only if every element of $W$ is a cube in $F\otimes\Q_3$.
\item $\rk_3T_3(F)=d-1$. For $h=1$: $\eps_F$ is a cube in $F\otimes\Q_3$ if and only if the local part of $T_3(F)$ is
nonzero, and $d=3$ if and only if $\eps_F$ and $\alpha_1$ are both cubes in $F\otimes\Q_3$, if and only if $T_3(F)$ is not
cyclic.
\end{enumerate}
\end{prop}

\begin{proof}
(1) If $x\in W$ is $\sigma$-invariant modulo cubes, then $x^2\equiv x\sigma(x)=N_{F/\Q}(x)$, so $x\equiv r:=N_{F/\Q}(x)^2$
modulo cubes, with $r\in\Q^\times$ and $(r)O_F$ a cube. For a prime $p$ unramified in $F$ this gives $3\mid v_p(r)$; for $p$
ramified it gives $3\mid 2v_p(r)$. So $r=\pm m^3$ with $m\in\Q$, a cube in $F$. As $2$ is invertible, $W=W^-$.

(2) Inflation $H^2(\cG,\F_3)\to H^2(G_S(F),\F_3)$ is injective and $\tG$-equivariant: in the five-term exact sequence for
$\Gal(\overline F_S/F_S(3))\lhd G_S(F)$ the obstruction $H^1(\Gal(\overline F_S/F_S(3)),\F_3)^{\cG}$ vanishes, because a
nonzero invariant homomorphism would cut out a cyclic cubic extension of $F_S(3)$ that is Galois and pro-$3$ over $F$ and
unramified outside $S$. For $v\in S$ the local groups $H^2(F_v,\F_3)$ vanish: for $v\mid3$ they are dual to
$H^0(F_v,\mu_3)=0$ since $F_v/\Q_3$ is unramified, and for $v$ real they are killed by $2$. Hence
$H^2(G_S(F),\F_3)=\Sha^2_S(\F_3)$, which by Poitou--Tate duality \cite[Ch.~VIII]{NSW} is dual to $\Sha^1_S(\mu_3)$. By
Kummer theory $H^1(F,\mu_3)=F^\times/F^{\times3}$, and the classes unramified outside $S$ and locally trivial at $S$ form
exactly $V_S$. The duality pairing is invariant under conjugation by a lift of $\sigma$, since the local invariant maps
satisfy $\operatorname{inv}_{\sigma v}\circ\sigma=\operatorname{inv}_v$. So $\Sha^2_S(\F_3)^+$ is orthogonal to
$V_S^-=V_S$, hence zero.

(3) Every Galois extension of $F$ of degree $3$ unramified outside $S$ lies in $F_S(3)$, so
$H^1(\cG,\F_3)=H^1(G_S(F),\F_3)$. Tate's global Euler characteristic formula \cite[Ch.~VIII]{NSW} gives
$h^0-h^1+h^2=\sum_{v\text{ real}}h^0(F_v,\F_3)-[F:\Q]=0$ for $G_S(F)$ with coefficients $\F_3$, so
$d=1+h^2(G_S(F),\F_3)=1+\dim V_S$; this is the Shafarevich--Koch formula in our case \cite{Koch,NSW}. Every class of $W$ has a
representative $x$ prime to $3$ (move $\mathfrak b$ in its class), and such an $x$ is a cube in $F_v$ exactly when
$x^N\in1+9O_v$, i.e.\ when $\lb(x)$ vanishes at $v$. Since $N_{F/\Q}(x)=\pm m^3$ with $3\nmid m$, we get
$\Tr\lambda(x)=3\lambda(m)\equiv0\pmod 3$, so $\lb(x)\in(O_F/3)^{\Tr=0}=(O_F/3)^-$, which is a line. Hence
$h\le\dim V_S\le h+1$.

(4) The Galois group $X_F$ of the maximal abelian pro-$3$ extension of $F$ unramified outside $3$ is $\Z_3\oplus T_3(F)$
(Leopoldt's conjecture holds for $F$), so $\rk_3 T_3(F)=d-1$. The local part of $T_3(F)$ is the torsion of
$U^1_F/\overline{E}_F$; under $\lambda$ it is $I_F/\Z_3\lambda(\eps_F)$ with $I_F$ the trace-zero line of $O_F\otimes\Z_3$,
which is nonzero exactly when $\lambda(\eps_F)\in3I_F$. The remaining statements follow from (3) with $W=\langle\eps_F,\alpha_1\rangle$.
\end{proof}

\begin{remark}
In the language of the introduction, the forced stratum is the case where ``the unit part of $T_3(F)$ splits off its
class-group part''; precisely, it means $\rk_3T_3(F)=h+1$. When $9\mid h_F$ this need not be a direct sum decomposition, and
indeed $2428$ of the $23\,914$ forced fields in our data have $9\mid h_F$.
\end{remark}

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Proof of the theorems}\label{sec:proof}
% ======================================================================================================================

\begin{thm}[rank formula]\label{thm:rank}
% [Proved]
For every cubic field $k$ with $d_k=D$ one has $\rk_3\Cl_9(k)=d-1+c$, where $c=1$ if $\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc=0$ in
$H^2(\cG,\F_3)$ and $c=0$ otherwise.
\end{thm}

\begin{proof}
By Lemma~\ref{lem:raycoh} and Shapiro's lemma, $\rk_3\Cl_9(k)=\dim H^1(\tG,P)$. We use:
\begin{itemize}
\item $H^0(\tG,\mathbf1)=\F_3$ and $H^0(\tG,\sgn)=0$;
\item $H^1(\tG,\mathbf1)=\Hom(\tG,\F_3)=\F_3\chi_\cyc$, because $\Q(\zeta_9)^+$ is the only cyclic cubic field unramified
outside $3$;
\item $H^1(\tG,\sgn)=H^1(\cG,\F_3)^-$, of dimension $d-1$, containing $\chi_K$ (because $\sigma$ acts on $\Gal(K/F)$ by $-1$);
\item $H^2(\tG,\mathbf1)=0$ (Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}(2)) and $H^2(\tG,\sgn)=H^2(\cG,\F_3)$.
\end{itemize}
The first sequence of \eqref{eq:seqs} gives, since $H^0(\tG,\mathbf 1)\to H^0(\tG,N)=N^{S_3}=\F_3(e_1+e_2+e_3)$ is an
isomorphism,
\[
0\to H^1(\tG,\mathbf1)\to H^1(\tG,N)\to H^1(\tG,\sgn)\to H^2(\tG,\mathbf 1)=0,
\]
so $\dim H^1(\tG,N)=d$, and also that $H^2(\tG,N)\to H^2(\tG,\sgn)$ is injective. In the second sequence,
$H^0(\tG,P)=\F_3(e_1+e_2+e_3)$ maps to $3=0$ in $H^0(\tG,\mathbf1)$, so the connecting map $\F_3=H^0(\tG,\mathbf 1)\to
H^1(\tG,N)$ is injective and
\[
0\to H^1(\tG,N)/\F_3\to H^1(\tG,P)\xrightarrow{\ \operatorname{cor}\ } H^1(\tG,\mathbf1)\xrightarrow{\ \delta\ }H^2(\tG,N).
\]
Thus $\dim H^1(\tG,P)=d-1+\dim\ker\delta$. Composing $\delta$ with the injection $H^2(\tG,N)\to H^2(\tG,\sgn)$ gives, by
naturality, the connecting map of the third sequence of \eqref{eq:seqs}, which is the cup product with its extension class
in $H^1(\tG,\Hom(\mathbf1,\sgn))=H^1(\cG,\F_3)^-$. With the section $1\mapsto e_1$ that class is the cocycle
$g\mapsto(g-1)e_1$; it vanishes on a lift of $s$, and for $g\in\cG$ acting as $\tau^{\chi_K(g)}$ it equals
$\chi_K(g)(e_2-e_1)$ modulo constants, because $e_3-e_1\equiv-(e_2-e_1)$ there. So the class is $\chi_K$, and
$\delta(\chi_\cyc)=0$ if and only if $\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc=0$.
\end{proof}

\begin{remark}[the witness]\label{rem:witness}
The proof also says where the extensions come from. Modulo the class of the extension $P$ (which maps to $\chi_K$),
$H^1(\tG,N)$ is spanned by $\chi_\cyc$ and by lifts to $N=[\sgn;\mathbf1]$ of the sign-type characters other than $\chi_K$;
such lifts exist because their obstruction $\chi_K\cup\chi$ lies in $H^2(\tG,\mathbf1)=0$. When $h=1$ and $d=3$ the extra
sign-type character $\chi_E$ cuts out a cyclic cubic extension $E/F$, ramified at $3$, with $E/\Q$ an $S_3$-extension. Its
lift gives a cyclic cubic extension $L_E/k$ unramified outside $3$ and different from $k\cdot\Q(\zeta_9)^+$, whose Galois
closure over $F$ is a non-abelian group of order $27$ containing $EK$. This field is the explicit cause of the anomaly.
\end{remark}

\begin{remark}[$c$ as a transfer]\label{rem:transfer}
% [Proved]
The image of $\operatorname{cor}$ is $\ker\delta$, so $c=1$ if and only if corestriction
$H^1(\Gamma_k,\F_3)\to H^1(\tG,\F_3)$ is nonzero, i.e.\ if and only if the transfer
$\Gal(\Q(\zeta_9)^+/\Q)\to\Gamma_k^{\rm ab}/3$ is nonzero. By class field theory the transfer is the extension of ideals
$\Cl_9(\Q)[3]=\langle[2]\rangle\to\Cl_9(k)/3$, so $c=0$ if and only if the class of $2O_k$ is trivial in $\Cl_9(k)/3$.
\end{remark}

\begin{lemma}\label{lem:clk}
% [Proved]
$\rk_3\Cl(k)\le h-1$. In particular $\Cl(k)[3]=0$ when $h=1$.
\end{lemma}

\begin{proof}
Run the argument of Theorem~\ref{thm:rank} with $\tG'=\Gal(F^{\rm ur}(3)/\Q)$ in place of $\tG$ (Lemma~\ref{lem:raycoh}).
ef{thm:rank} with $	G'=\Gal(F^{
m ur}(3)/\Q)$ in place of $	G$ (Lemma~
ef{lem:raycoh}).
Now
$H^1(\tG',\mathbf 1)=0$ (there is no unramified cyclic cubic extension of $\Q$) and $H^1(\tG',\sgn)=\Hom(\Cl(F),\F_3)$ has
dimension $h$. The second sequence gives $\rk_3\Cl(k)=\dim H^1(\tG',N)-1$, and the first gives
$H^1(\tG',N)\hookrightarrow H^1(\tG',\sgn)$.
\end{proof}

\begin{proof}[Proof of Theorem~\ref{thmA}]
The first two statements are Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}(3). Since $C_k$ is the kernel of
$\Cl_9(k)[3^\infty]\to\Cl(k)[3^\infty]$, Theorem~\ref{thm:rank} and Lemma~\ref{lem:clk} give
\[
\dim C_k\ \ge\ \rk_3\Cl_9(k)-\rk_3\Cl(k)\ \ge\ (d-1+c)-(h-1)\ =\ d-h+c .
\]
If $d=h+2$ this is at least $2$, and Lemma~\ref{lem:depth} gives $\operatorname{depth}_3(k)\ge1$.
\end{proof}

The same inequality shows that $k$ is anomalous whenever $d=h+1$ and $c=1$.

\begin{proof}[Proof of Theorem~\ref{thmB}]
For $h=1$, Lemma~\ref{lem:clk} gives $\Cl(k)[3]=0$, so $C_k=\Cl_9(k)[3^\infty]$ is elementary abelian of dimension
$d-1+c$, and $\dim\lb(E_k)=3-(d-1+c)$ by Lemma~\ref{lem:depth}. The class of the principal ideal $2O_k$ in $\Cl_9(k)$ is the
image of $2\in(O_k/9)^\times$, whose $3$-component is that of $-2=7=1+3\cdot2$, i.e.\ the class of $2\cdot1$ in
$(O_k/3)/\lb(E_k)$. By Remark~\ref{rem:transfer}, $c=0$ if and only if $1\in\lb(E_k)$. The table follows: for $d=3$, $c=0$
the space $\lb(E_k)$ is a line containing $1$; for $d=3$, $c=1$ it is $0$ and Lemma~\ref{lem:depth}(3) applies; for $d=2$
it is the plane ($c=0$) or a line not containing $1$ ($c=1$).
\end{proof}

\begin{remark}[units of $K$]
The classical route through the unit group of $K$ gives only part of this. For $h=1$ and $|\Cl(F)[3^\infty]|=3$, the
Herbrand quotient of $E_K$ for the unramified extension $K/F$ is $1/3$, so $H^1(\Gal(K/F),E_K)\cong\Z/3$ and
$\mathfrak bO_K=(\beta)$ is principal. In the forced stratum $\eps_F$ and $\eta=\alpha/\beta^3$ are units of $K$ that are
local cubes at $3$ and independent modulo cubes. Both are of sign type, however, and by themselves impose no dependence on
the reduced logarithms of $E_k$; the additional input is the vanishing $H^2(\tG,\mathbf 1)=0$.
\end{remark}

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{The generic stratum}\label{sec:d2}
% ======================================================================================================================

Suppose $h=1$ and $d=2$, which is the case for $88\%$ of our fields. By Theorem~\ref{thmB}, $k$ is anomalous if and only if
$\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc=0$ in the line $H^2(\cG,\F_3)\cong V_S^\vee$, i.e.\ if and only if one element of $\F_3$ vanishes. The
line $V_S$ is spanned by $\alpha_1\eps_F^{j}$ for the unique $j$ making it a local cube when $\eps_F$ is not a local cube,
and by $\eps_F$ when $\eps_F$ is a local cube but $\alpha_1$ is not (the ``glued'' case, $T_3(F)$ cyclic). In both cases
$\cG$ has two generators and one relation, and nothing distinguishes the two cases at the level of this invariant.

\begin{heur}\label{heur:third}
% [Heuristic]
For $h=1$ and $d=2$ the element $\langle\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc,x\rangle\in\F_3$ ($x$ a generator of $V_S$) is equidistributed
as $D$ varies, so the anomaly rate in this stratum is $1/3$, both when $\eps_F$ is a local cube and when it is not. For
$h=1$, $d=3$, the element $\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc$ of the plane $H^2(\cG,\F_3)$ vanishes with probability $1/9$.
\end{heur}

A naive count misled us at first. Writing the reduced log matrix of $k$ with one difference-type linear relation coming
from the unit index of $K$ and an inhomogeneous term $e$ equal to the reduced logarithm of $\eps_F$, a uniform model gives
anomaly probability $1/3$ for $e\neq0$ and $5/9$ for $e=0$, predicting $5/9$ in the glued case. The data give $0.324$. The
correct inhomogeneous term is the image $\lb(W)\subset(O_F/3)^-$ of the whole group $W$, which by
Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent} is nonzero exactly when $d=h+1$: in the glued case it is carried by $\alpha_1$, through the
capitulation relation $\alpha_1=\eta\beta^3$. It vanishes exactly in the forced case, where the answer is $1$ rather than
$5/9$.

Observed: the anomaly rate is $0.3257$ when $\eps_F$ is not a local cube ($171\,138$ fields) and $0.3241$ in the glued case
($56\,912$ fields). Overall $P(c=1\mid h=1,d=2)=0.3253\pm0.0010$, with a deficit relative to $1/3$ that is largest for small
$D$ (Table~\ref{tab:bins}); above $4\cdot10^6$ the pooled rate is $0.328$ ($4.5$ standard errors below $1/3$), so we cannot
yet decide whether the limit is exactly $1/3$. For $d=3$ we observe $P(c=1)=0.101\pm0.002$ against $1/9$. In the forced
stratum the probability of depth $\ge2$ given $c=0$ is $0.338$, so the model ``$c=1$ with probability $1/9$, otherwise one
further uniform digit'' predicts $P(\operatorname{depth}\ge2)\approx\frac19+\frac89\cdot\frac13=\frac{11}{27}$, against
$0.405$ observed.

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Why nothing is forced for $p\ge5$}\label{sec:pge5}
% ======================================================================================================================

Let $p\ge5$ be unramified in $K$. Lemma~\ref{lem:depth} holds with $3$ replaced by $p$ and $\Cl_9$ by $\Cl_{p^2}$, with the
same proof. The forcing mechanism of Section~\ref{sec:proof} used two features specific to $p=3$: $K$ lies in a pro-$3$
extension of $F$, so the arithmetic of $F$ (the characters $\chi_K$, $\chi_E$) and that of $k$ live in the cohomology of one
group; and the permutation module $\F_3[S_3/\langle s\rangle]$ glues the sign character to the trivial one. For $p\ge5$
neither holds.

\begin{prop}\label{prop:pge5}
% [Proved]
Let $p\ge5$ be unramified in $K$. As an $\F_p[S_3]$-module, $\Cl_{p^2}(K)/p\cong\mathbf 1^{a}\oplus\sgn^{b}\oplus\bar\rho^{m}$,
with $\bar\rho$ the two-dimensional irreducible representation. Here $a=\rk_p\Cl_{p^2}(\Q)=1$,
$b=\rk_p\Cl_{p^2}(F)-1$, and $\rk_p\Cl_{p^2}(k)=1+m$. In particular $\rk_p\Cl_{p^2}(k)$ does not depend on the sign-type
part, which is the only part through which invariants of $F$ enter.
\end{prop}

\begin{proof}
$\F_p[S_3]$ is semisimple, so the decomposition exists. Since $[K:k]$, $[K:F]$ and $[K:\Q]$ are prime to $p$, taking
invariants under $\langle s\rangle$, $\langle\tau\rangle$ and $S_3$ is exact and identifies $\Cl_{p^2}(k)/p$,
$\Cl_{p^2}(F)/p$ and $\Cl_{p^2}(\Q)/p$ with the corresponding invariants. Now
$\mathbf1^{\langle s\rangle}=\mathbf 1$, $\sgn^{\langle s\rangle}=0$ and $\dim\bar\rho^{\langle s\rangle}=1$, while
$\mathbf1^{\tau}=\mathbf1$, $\sgn^{\tau}=\sgn$ and $\bar\rho^{\tau}=0$. Finally $\Cl_{p^2}(\Q)[p]\cong\Z/p$ corresponds to the
degree-$p$ subfield of $\Q(\zeta_{p^2})$.
\end{proof}

So for $p\ge5$ the anomaly of $k$ is a statement about the $\bar\rho$-multiplicity alone, and no condition on the resolvent
can force it. This matches Table~\ref{tab:survey}, where the Haar law holds at every $p\ge5$ (we do not claim that the
Haar law is a theorem).

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Computations}\label{sec:numerics}
% ======================================================================================================================

All computations use \textsc{PARI/GP} 2.17.3 \cite{PARI} with \texttt{bnfinit} assuming GRH; the class and unit groups are not
certified. Scripts and data are in the directory of this paper.

\subsection{The survey} \texttt{fe14\_survey.py} enumerates the totally real cubic fields with $d_k\le10^7$ ($592\,421$
fields), computes the units, and computes the reduced logarithm matrix modulo $p^{8}$ for $3\le p\le31$, exactly in
$\Z_p[x]/(f)$. Table~\ref{tab:p3bins} shows the rate at $p=3$ by discriminant range.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{lrcr}
\toprule
$d_k$ range ($10^6$) & fields & rate & $z$ vs $11/27$\\
\midrule
$(0,1]$ & 31435 & 0.3666 & -14.7 \\
$(1,2]$ & 32531 & 0.3791 & -10.4 \\
$(2,4]$ & 66076 & 0.3798 & -14.5 \\
$(4,6]$ & 66600 & 0.3854 & -11.5 \\
$(6,8]$ & 67043 & 0.3834 & -12.6 \\
$(8,10]$ & 67218 & 0.3852 & -11.7 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{Anomaly rate at $p=3$ by discriminant.}
\label{tab:p3bins}
\end{table}

\subsection{The strata} \texttt{fe15\_strata.py} and \texttt{fe15b\_cube.py} compute $d$, $h$ and whether $\eps_F$ is a
local cube for the $254\,176$ resolvents of the $259\,403$ fields with fundamental $d_k$ prime to $3$
(Table~\ref{tab:strata}). The cell ($h=1$, $d=3$, $\eps_F$ not a local cube) is empty, as
Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}(4) requires.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{cccrcc}
\toprule
$h$ & $d$ & $\eps_F$ local cube & fields & anomaly rate & depth $0$ / $1$ / $\ge2$\\
\midrule
1 & 2 & no & 171138 & 0.3257 & 0.674 / 0.217 / 0.109 \\
1 & 2 & yes & 56912 & 0.3241 & 0.676 / 0.218 / 0.106 \\
1 & 3 & yes & 23914 & 1.0000 & 0.000 / 0.595 / 0.405 \\
2 & 3 & no & 5146 & 0.3984 & 0.602 / 0.255 / 0.143 \\
2 & 3 & yes & 2198 & 0.3922 & 0.608 / 0.258 / 0.134 \\
2 & 4 & yes & 95 & 1.0000 & 0.000 / 0.568 / 0.432 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{Fields with fundamental discriminant prime to $3$, by stratum.}
\label{tab:strata}
\end{table}

\subsection{The full check} \texttt{fe16b\_scan.py} recomputes, for each of the $259\,403$ fields, $\rk_3\Cl(k)$,
$\rk_3\Cl_9(k)$, $\lb(E_k)$, whether $1\in\lb(E_k)$, whether $\lb(E_k)\subset\F_3\cdot1$, and the class of $2O_k$ in
$\Cl_9(k)/3$; for each resolvent it recomputes $\dim V_S$ from $\lb(\eps_F)$ and $\lb(\alpha_i)$. \texttt{fe16c\_analyze.py}
checks every statement of Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}(3), Theorem~\ref{thm:rank}, Lemma~\ref{lem:clk},
Theorems~\ref{thmA} and~\ref{thmB}, Remark~\ref{rem:transfer} and Lemma~\ref{lem:depth} (against the independently computed
depth of the survey). There were no exceptions and no computational errors (run time $1901$\,s on $24$ processes).
Table~\ref{tab:scan} gives the distribution of $c$.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{cccrcccc}
\toprule
$h$ & $d$ & $c$ & fields & anomaly & depth $\ge2$ & $1\in\lb(E_k)$ & $\lb(E_k)\subset\F_3\cdot1$\\
\midrule
1 & 2 & 0 & 153859 & 0.0000 & 0.0000 & 1.0000 & 0.0000 \\
1 & 2 & 1 & 74191 & 1.0000 & 0.3321 & 0.0000 & 0.0000 \\
1 & 3 & 0 & 21493 & 1.0000 & 0.3376 & 1.0000 & 1.0000 \\
1 & 3 & 1 & 2421 & 1.0000 & 1.0000 & 0.0000 & 1.0000 \\
2 & 3 & 0 & 6589 & 0.3274 & 0.1131 & 0.7534 & 0.0807 \\
2 & 3 & 1 & 755 & 1.0000 & 0.3788 & 0.0000 & 0.0596 \\
2 & 4 & 0 & 90 & 1.0000 & 0.4000 & 0.9556 & 1.0000 \\
2 & 4 & 1 & 5 & 1.0000 & 1.0000 & 0.0000 & 1.0000 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{The invariant $c$ of Theorem~\ref{thm:rank} on all $259\,403$ fields (proportions per row).}
\label{tab:scan}
\end{table}

For $h=2$ Lemma~\ref{lem:clk} is only an inequality and Theorem~\ref{thmB} does not apply; the table shows that $c=1$
still forces the anomaly there (as Theorem~\ref{thmA} predicts via $\dim C_k\ge d-h+c$), while $d=3$, $c=0$ gives a rate of
about $1/3$.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{minipage}{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\begin{tabular}{lrcr}
\toprule
$D$ ($10^6$) & fields & $P(c=1)$ & $z$ vs $\frac13$\\
\midrule
$[0,1)$ & 21939 & 0.3146 & -5.89 \\
$[1,2)$ & 22659 & 0.3242 & -2.92 \\
$[2,3)$ & 22773 & 0.3218 & -3.70 \\
$[3,4)$ & 22860 & 0.3263 & -2.26 \\
$[4,5)$ & 22942 & 0.3284 & -1.59 \\
$[5,6)$ & 22962 & 0.3297 & -1.18 \\
$[6,7)$ & 23027 & 0.3287 & -1.51 \\
$[7,8)$ & 22942 & 0.3251 & -2.65 \\
$[8,9)$ & 23010 & 0.3312 & -0.70 \\
$[9,10)$ & 22936 & 0.3229 & -3.35 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{minipage}\hfill
\begin{minipage}{0.5\textwidth}
\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}
\begin{axis}[width=0.92\textwidth,height=5cm,xlabel={$D/10^6$},ylabel={$P(c=1)$},ymin=0.30,ymax=0.345,
  xmin=0,xmax=10,grid=major,tick label style={font=\small},label style={font=\small}]
\addplot[only marks,mark=*,mark size=1.5pt,error bars/.cd,y dir=both,y explicit]
  table[row sep=\\,x=x,y=p,y error plus expr=\thisrow{hi}-\thisrow{p},y error minus expr=\thisrow{p}-\thisrow{lo}]{x p lo hi\\ 0.5 0.31460 0.30845 0.32074\\ 1.5 0.32420 0.31810 0.33029\\ 2.5 0.32178 0.31572 0.32785\\ 3.5 0.32629 0.32021 0.33237\\ 4.5 0.32839 0.32232 0.33447\\ 5.5 0.32968 0.32359 0.33576\\ 6.5 0.32866 0.32259 0.33472\\ 7.5 0.32508 0.31902 0.33114\\ 8.5 0.33116 0.32508 0.33724\\ 9.5 0.32290 0.31685 0.32895\\};
\addplot[dashed,domain=0:10] {1/3};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{minipage}
\caption{The generic stratum $h=1$, $d=2$: $P(c=1)$ (the anomaly rate) by discriminant, with $95\%$ intervals; dashed line $1/3$.}
\label{tab:bins}
\end{table}

\subsection{Reproducibility and formal verification}
Every table is regenerated from the stored JSON outputs by \texttt{make\_tables.py}. The intermediate identities were in
addition checked by hand on ten fields from each stratum (\texttt{fe16\_check.py}), including three forced fields with
$9\mid h_F$.

We do not offer a formal (Lean) certificate. The weight of the proof is carried by Poitou--Tate duality, Tate's Euler
characteristic formula and class field theory (Lemma~\ref{lem:raycoh}, Proposition~\ref{prop:resolvent}), none of which is
available in a proof assistant library at present. What remains --- the structure of the permutation module $P$ and the
bookkeeping of the long exact sequences in the proof of Theorem~\ref{thm:rank} --- is elementary, and formalising it alone would
certify the least doubtful part of the argument while leaving the load-bearing inputs untouched. The \textsc{PARI/GP} checks
instead test every link of the chain on every field of the survey, including the inputs we cite (for instance
$d=1+\dim V_S$ and $\rk_3\Cl(k)\le h-1$), with the caveat that they are GRH-conditional.

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Relation to Leopoldt's conjecture and to function fields}\label{sec:leopoldt}
% ======================================================================================================================

Theorems~\ref{thmA} and~\ref{thmB} force the first $3$-adic digit of $R_3(k)/9$ (two digits when $d=3$ and $c=1$), and say
nothing about $R_3(k)\neq0$. Nothing in the argument controls the further digits, and the data are consistent with the
next digit being random once the forced one is accounted for (depth exactly $1$ in $59.5\%$ of the forced fields).
Writing $O_K\otimes\Z_3\cong\Z_3[S_3]$, the regulator of $k$ is the $\rho$-factor of the group determinant of the reduced
logarithms of one unit of $K$, an irreducible quadratic form in $3$-adic logarithms, and the non-vanishing of such forms is
the open ($p$-adic four exponentials) part of Leopoldt's conjecture for $S_3$ cubic fields. The non-maximality of
$\Z_3[S_3]$ changes the distribution of the reduction of this form, but not its transcendence content.

There is a parallel in positive characteristic. For the Carlitz module over $\F_q(\theta)$ the analogue of Leopoldt's
conjecture can fail, and the failure is forced by the same Brauer reduction: in characteristic $3$ the reflection
representation of $S_3$ reduces to the non-split extension $[\sgn;\mathbf1]$, and for a real cubic extension of
$\F_3(\theta)$ whose Galois closure is imaginary and wildly ramified at $\infty$ the Goss zeta function factors through
the non-real quadratic resolvent, which forces a positive Leopoldt defect at every prime \cite{KrismanCarlitz}. Over number fields the group algebra $\Q[S_3]$ is semisimple and no rank
defect can be forced; what survives of the mechanism is the forced digit of Theorem~\ref{thmA}.

% ======================================================================================================================
\section{Open questions}\label{sec:open}
% ======================================================================================================================

\begin{enumerate}
\item \emph{An explicit criterion for $c$.} The pairing $\langle\chi_K\cup\chi_\cyc,x\rangle$, $x\in V_S$, is a linking
number of Massey type. A closed formula, for instance as a norm-residue symbol of $x$ in $K\cdot\Q(\zeta_9)^+$, would turn
Heuristic~\ref{heur:third} into a Chebotarev-type statement and explain the deficit in Table~\ref{tab:bins}.
\item \emph{The strata with $h\ge2$.} For $h=2$, $d=3$ and $c=0$ the anomaly rate is about $1/3$; a description analogous
to Theorem~\ref{thmB} requires controlling $\Cl(k)[3]$ and its interaction with $C_k$.
\item \emph{Non-fundamental discriminants.} When $d_k=f^2D$ with $f>1$, $K/F$ is ramified and $K$ need not lie in a
pro-$3$ extension of $F$ unramified outside $3$; the observed rate $0.351$ calls for a separate analysis.
\item \emph{Limits.} Is the anomaly rate in the generic stratum exactly $1/3$ in the limit, and is $P(c=1\mid h=1,d=3)$
exactly $1/9$?
\end{enumerate}

% bibliography inlined from main_src.bbl (amsplain style; source refs.bib)
\providecommand{\bysame}{\leavevmode\hbox to3em{\hrulefill}\thinspace}
\providecommand{\MR}{\relax\ifhmode\unskip\space\fi MR }
% \MRhref is called by the amsart/book/proc definition of \MR.
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  \href{http://www.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=#1}{#2}
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\begin{thebibliography}{10}

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\end{thebibliography}

\end{document}